Where is Pauper Without Atog?

Finally! A much needed banlist update for Pauper, thanks in no small part to the Pauper Format Panel. Although most people saw the Atog ban coming from a mile away, Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament came as a surprise to almost everyone. I hope you’re just as excited as I am to explore Pauper over the coming months. 

If you haven’t read it already, check out my interview with four of the members of the Pauper Format Panel. It reviews some of their thoughts on the format, what they enjoy, and what they think about the Panel itself.

Now, let’s go back to what started this mess, Grixis Affinity. 

Atog

Affinity finally eating a ban is by far the most immediately relevant part of this announcement. It didn’t have an incredible win rate overall, but it had an absolute stranglehold on the format regardless. The meta had devolved into Affinity versus decks built to beat Affinity by any means necessary, such as main deck Dust to Dust from Boros Bully. 

Overall, this means more sideboard slots will be opening up for a lot of decks. Any decks that were thriving due to a lack of sideboard slots being devoted to beating them will likely get taken down a notch. Bogles, Cycling Storm, and Burn are the most obvious ones that come to mind.

Without Affinity having incredibly consistent and fast combo kills via Atog, I expect the format to slow down notably. Other combo decks will have more time to set up, and Tron would be in a prime position to return to the top of a slower metagame, if it weren’t for the Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament bannings. Instead, we will have to see how the format shakes out with Atog gone.

Affinity without Atog

There are a lot of different routes that Affinity can take after the bannings. I imagine it will be at least a month before any single version of an artifact deck forms from the various brews that people will be slinging at the start. There are a lot of merits to every color that can be played in Affinity, so I’m looking forward to all of the variants that will appear.

Colorless

Although it’s not a color, colorless spells are an important part of Affinity. In the past, cards like Flayer Husk, Frogmite, and Springleaf Drum have seen play, in addition to the obvious Myr Enforcer. 

Flayer Husk is overall a rather weak card. Being a 1-drop made it tenable in past versions of Affinity because it synergized with Springleaf Drum for ramp and mana-fixing, but I don’t really expect this to see play. If it takes a route closer to the Brute Squad deck or another very fast aggro deck, maybe these two will see play. 

Frogmite is a different sort. It ended up being cut from Affinity in recent years, but was added back into the BR Affinity variant over the last few months. It has enough of a pedigree in the format that I would reasonably expect to see more of it in Pauper going forward.

Chromatic Star and Chromatic Sphere are historically popular mana fixers, with Star being particularly popular since it drew a card if sacrificed to Atog or more recently, Deadly Dispute. Prophetic Prism has also been in this role but fell out of favor even before it was banned. 

White

White brings most of the Metalcraft payoffs. Ardent Recruit and Auriok Sunchaser saw play in Jeskai Affinity when Fall From Favor was legal. Although both are susceptible to Lightning Bolt, 3/3 creatures for a single mana are powerful, and tagging on flying for a second mana is not a bad deal either. This makes the most sense to me in a more aggressive list with at least Frogmite, if not Flayer Husk and Springleaf Drum.

In a similar vein to Recruit is Court Homunculus. Although it doesn’t get as large, it turns on more easily and is an artifact itself. Perhaps it could see play in an aggressive version of Affinity.

A different angle to take that may be too slow or too close to WRx Monarch with Thraben Inspector, Glint Hawk, and Kor Skyfisher could be an option. All are all powerful cards that synergize well with cantripping artifacts. Prophetic Prism may be banned, but there are plenty of other options to pair these with, like Spare Supplies, Wedding Invitation, and Alchemist’s Vial.

Blue

Speaking of the white Metalcraft creatures, Of One Mind is a good reason to pair Blue with White in Affinity. Adding more draw-twos to compensate for not playing Black and Deadly Dispute is definitely worth something.

Thoughtcast is one of the best card advantage spells for an artifact deck and a big reason to play artifacts in the first place. I don’t think drawing two cards for one mana needs much explanation as to why it’s good.

Gearseeker Serpent is a huge creature that effectively has Affinity for Artifacts. Being able to eat Gurmag Angler in combat is no joke, and with enough mana, it can push through the most cluttered board state. Before Sojourner’s Companion was banned, this was a very popular card in Affinity until the more sacrifice and combo-centric versions surfaced.

There are also a few counterspells that see play in Affinity from time to time. Hydroblast out of the sideboard can hit red removal spells. Metallic Rebuke is a reasonable catch-all answer. Dispel hits most of the removal in the format as well as Counterspell.

Black

Black has a few cards to offer. The biggest is Deadly Dispute. It may have appeared innocuous during spoiler season, but it’s become one of the most impactful Pauper cards in the last several years. Sacrificing an artifact pairs incredibly well with Ichor Wellspring, adding another potential draw-two to the deck. It even replaces that artifact with a new one in a Treasure token, leaving your artifact count intact for Affinity and Metalcraft purposes. These two cards together are powerful enough to have seen play in decks other than Affinity.

A newcomer to Pauper, Blood Fountain adds a lot of late game grind while providing two artifacts for one mana. This is good with both Deadly Dispute as well as any card with Affinity for Artifacts. Although it won’t be returning Atog to hand again any time soon, returning Myr Enforcer or other powerful creatures keeps it in consideration.

Also related to sacrificing artifacts, Disciple of the Vault is a card that lost a lot of equity with Atog’s ban. Losing a free sacrifice outlet for your entire board means that it’s not as likely to machine-gun down the opponent’s life total. However, it still triggers when creatures die, you cast Deadly Dispute, sacrifice a Treasure, or use Chromatic Sphere, Chromatic Star, or Blood Fountain. 

Red

If Disciple of the Vault is going to see play, I suspect it will be because it’s paired with Makeshift Munitions. Munitions, like Atog, works well with Chromatic Star and Ichor Wellspring. Additionally, stuffing the deck full of card draw lets it flood the board to provide more artifacts for Munitions.

Red also provides Galvanic Blast. Blast is one of the best removal and reach spells in Pauper. Dealing four damage for one mana is no joke, but without Atog, I’m not sure if Red will be a color of choice for Affinity. Without Red, it will probably have to find a replacement removal spell, but I suspect it can manage.

Pyroblast is an incredible card against the many Faerie decks of the format. If you’re playing Red, this card is going to be in your sideboard. Krark-Clan Shaman is another popular sideboard card to help with aggressive go-wide decks. 

Green

Green really doesn’t add much, so I’ll make this quick. Carapace Forger has always been used as Myr Enforcer 5-8. The extra brawn was made less necessary when Gearseeker Serpent was printed, but it’s still a powerful card and the two are often played together.

Moving Forward without Atog

My two picks for Affinity going forward are Grixis Sacrifice and Bant Metalcraft. I think they are the two unique styles that Affinity can take. I don’t expect these lists to be mainstream, but I think they’re reasonable starting points. 

Grixis is aimed at replicating the current success of Atog Affinity but as a more controlling role. It can’t run the combo cards like Fling or Atog itself, but Gearseeker Serpent is still a powerful creature. Meanwhile, leaning harder on Makeshift Munitions will help the deck keep the board clear.

Bant is aimed towards being a large, aggressive deck. It’s possible that Bant should be Jeskai, with Galvanic Blast and Makeshift Munitions replacing Carapace Forger and Journey to Nowhere.

Affinity wasn’t the only deck affected in this ban announcement. Let’s see what’s going on with Tron next.

Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament

Banning Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament was clearly intended to target the popular Flicker Tron deck. In the ban announcement, Gavin Verhey stated that it had one of the highest win rates in Pauper, even higher than Affinity. Before Modern Horizons 2 shook up the format, it was consistently one of the top decks in Pauper.

Depowering Tron is good for decks that are weak against Tron, like Stompy. I don’t doubt that Stompy and similar decks will continue to have a terrible matchup against Tron, but if Tron is weaker, then fewer players will play Tron. 

Despite how Expedition Map ate a ban in an attempt to nerf Tron, it continued to be a top deck in the format. Because Map was banned earlier, I believe the bans of Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament will be far more effective. Playing 12 colorless lands comes at a real cost, and previously Map would allow those colorless lands to tutor for a colored mana source. Having all three of these colorless mana-fixers banned may be what the format needed to take Tron down a notch without banning its namesake lands. 

Tron Post-Bannings

Currently, the card I’m hearing mentioned most as a mana-fixer replacement is Prismatic Lens. It provides a small amount of ramp, similar to Bonder’s Ornament, when Tron isn’t online, then provides the mana fixing that Prophetic Prism provided. The lack of card draw compared to Prism is a severe cost, however. I doubt lists will be playing more than 1-2 Lens and will instead rely on the Signets, particularly Simic Signet, to supply both mana fixing and ramp simultaneously. I imagine Cave of Temptations will also see more play for better mana fixing, but if Tron goes too low on basic lands to fit more duals, it may get more heavily punished by Cleansing Wildfire midrange decks. 

As replacements for Bonder’s Ornament, both Honored Heirloom and Letter of Acceptance are being discussed. Both are better Manalith, like Ornament. Letter can replace itself once it has served its purpose as a mana rock, while Honored Heirloom has some upside versus decks that use the graveyard. In particular, it would be good against Archaeomancer + Ephemerate loops as well as the Moggwartz combo deck that utilizes [/c]Putrid Goblin[/c]. There are a few other minor use cases for graveyard hate, as well. 

Losing a significant part of its grind in Ornament and no more cantripping Prism will cause some huge shifts in Pauper Tron. Gavin Verhey specifically mentioned in his ban explanation a different Tron variant that has been gaining some traction lately: Cascade Tron. Although it’s still a 5c deck utilizing both banned artifacts, the core of the deck is in far fewer colors than current Flicker Tron decks. Without Affinity around it can cut Dust to Dust from the sideboard, and its three main-deck black spells could likely be added to the chopping block, perhaps for red removal spells. 

I’ve enjoyed playing versus Tron decks in the past that relied on playing large creatures. Heck, I remember playing against Cloudpost decks that used Aurochs Herd as its threat of choice! I never found those variants of Tron to be problematic or nearly as frustrating to play against as current Flicker Tron variants. I also didn’t mind old RUG Rolling Thunder Control versions of Tron. If these changes help shift Tron decks in either of these directions, I’ll be very happy with the effects of the bannings.

Banning Side Effects

The primary issue with banning Prophetic Prism and Bonder’s Ornament is the splash damage that will be dealt to other decks. WR Kitty/Monarch/whatever-you-call-it (the deck with Kor Skyfisher and Glint Hawk) used Prism for mana fixing, which allowed the deck to splash black for Reaping the Graves. Overall, I think that’s a minor loss.

However, Bonder’s Ornament was one of the few competitors for the maligned Monarch mechanic for many midrange decks, not just Tron. Jund/BR Wildfire Cascade and WB Pestilence in particular both made use of the card. I don’t think this is a huge deal though, as both decks already utilized Thorn of the Black Rose to gain the Monarch. Both also have other significant methods for producing card advantage in namesake Cascade spells or Pestilence.

As sad as these losses might be for their respective decks, the good news for all of them is that Tron got significantly nerfed! Tron was the boogeyman of the format for non-Blue midrange decks, like the WR Skyfisher decks and Wildfire Cascade. Although Tron might not be completely gone, it should give much more breathing room for other midrange decks to see play. 

Conclusion

I believe that Prism and Ornament getting banned truly shows the nuance that the Pauper Format Panel members are exercising with the banlist. Tron has been in the crosshairs for a long time, and banning Expedition Map did very little to hurt the deck. Most players would immediately jump to ban the namesake Tron lands: Urza’s Tower, Urza’s Mine, and Urza’s Power Plant. 

Others would target the double flicker cards, Ephemerate and Ghostly Flicker, but that would do splash damage to Jeskai Ephemerate, UW Flicker, and UW Familiars. I’ve long blamed my dislike for Pauper Tron on the flicker engine, but playing against Jeskai Ephemerate has really changed my mind on whether or not the flicker engine is fair enough for Pauper. 

Oftentimes the obvious ban is the best ban, the nuance of targeting the mana fixing from Tron gives me a lot of confidence in the Pauper Format Panel and their decisions in managing the banlist going forward.