For Burn, mulligans are very punishing. Burn lacks card selection and therefore is more reliant on opening on a proper combination of lands and spells than other Modern decks. As a result, a “weak” seven card hand is often better than an “average” six card hand. However, if that seven card hand wasn’t going to win the game, you need to mulligan anyways and hope to find a great six card hand. The strategies in this article are based on a simple principle: playing to win.
I previously published a deck building guide and manabase guide for Modern Burn. Optimal Burn lists should produce opening hands with creatures to put on early pressure, burn spells to close out games, and lands to deploy everything. Mulligans help execute strategies planned in deck building.
In tournament Magic, mulligans are often the most important gameplay decision. From beginner to master, we’ll discuss four levels of mulligan strategy alongside underlying math. The calculations assumed 20 lands including 4 Sunbaked Canyon + 1 Fiery Islet and did not adjust for draw order (creatures are good early and bad late).
I won the most recent UOL Modern season with this Burn list, using the strategies outlined in this article. You can sign up on our Discord to try for yourself in our free tournaments!
1.0 Level 1: 7⋅3 = 21
On a basic level, Burn needs 7 spells. Opponents can still combo off or have interaction but having 7 spells at least threatens a win. 6 can work if they take damage from lands or fail to answer creatures. Level 1 mulliganing is about executing Burn’s basic strategy: goldfishing opponents from 20 to 0. This requires a critical mass of spells and lands to deploy them. As a result, Burn mulligans poorly. Every point of damage matters and going down a card costs 3.
One easy approach is to count the total damage in your hand (D). Most Modern decks rely on fetchlands+shocklands so add ~3 free damage. Ignore this against decks like Tron. Then apply a simple formula to see how many more spells you need: (20 – D)/3. Odds of drawing additional spells are estimated below. In simple terms, keep hands that are 1-3 spells away from lethal.
| Draws | Number of Spells | ||||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 1 | 67% | ||||
| 2 | 45% | 44% | |||
| 3 | 22% | 46% | 29% | ||
| 4 | 9% | 30% | 41% | 19% | |
| 5 | 4% | 16% | 34% | 33% | 12% |
1.1 When to Mull
Basic mulligans are based on the Land : Spell ratio. Two or three lands is ideal. Sometimes you can keep one or four lands, or have to mull 2-3 land hands.
1.1.1 Keeping 1-landers
I generally only keep one-landers with Goblin Guide & 2-3 other one mana plays.
Six spells is almost 20 damage. Most one land hands turn out well if you draw the second land on time. However, this won’t always happen. Guide + Bolting is a five turn clock which can cheese some games (Modern is a ~4 turn format) while having the upside of hitting the second land. Guide getting answered tanks your winrate, but mulligans tank Burn’s winrate anyways.
Burn has two primary constraints: the total damage it can deal (damage amount) and the rate at which it deals damage (damage rate). Burn needs to deal 20 before opponents can execute their strategy. On one land, the damage rate is the key constraint.
Opening on a creature maximizes the amount of damage it can deal, which is critical for a one-land hand. For one mana, it can connect multiple times. In the case of Goblin Guide, just two connections is equivalent to the more expensive Boros Charm at half the cost. At that point it’s the best of both worlds: a high damage amount at a cheap rate.
On one land, double Goblin Guide or Guide + Swiftspear is better than double Monastery Swiftspear. Double Swiftspear deals three damage by the end of turn two, compared to 6 for double Guide and 5 for Guide + Swiftspear. 17 life is a Lightning Bolt higher than 14 or 15. By turn three, opponents will have blockers or removal, so creatures rarely deal additional damage.
Monastery Swiftspear can work on one land with a critical mass of one mana spells. In this situation, Skewer the Critics sucks as it cannot trigger prowess precombat. Rift Bolt can help, but Suspend gives the opponent an extra turn to find removal.
For 1-landers that need the 2nd land on time the odds are:
| No Fetch | Fetch | |
| Play | 36% | 35% |
| Draw | 59% | 58% |
Conversely, the odds of not finding a second land are:
| Draws | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| P(no land) | 64% | 41% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 3% |
1.1.2 Keeping 4-landers
Four lands can be keepable if you have Goblin Guide & 1-2 Canopy lands.
Prowess won’t trigger often when action light. However, some players keep four-landers with Monastery Swiftspear, especially alongside Boros Charm (the fourth point of damage goes a long way when short on spells).
Four-landers can quickly deploy resources but struggle at hitting the full 20. Therefore, the damage amount is the primary constraint. Instead of efficient one CMC spells, prioritize high impact cards like Boros Charm and Searing Blaze. Additionally, repeatable damage from a turn one creature is crucial. Two hits from a Goblin Guide is as much damage as a Charm at half the cost.
Assuming a four-lander needs Guide and 2+ Canopies, about 7% of four-landers are keepable. If you reduce that to 1+ canopies, that makes about 20% keepable. If you’re even willing to use Swiftspear instead of Guide, that bumps it up to around 36%.
The probability of reaching the seven and six spell thresholds (the approximate number of spells burn needs to win the game) for four-landers is below. Each extra draw boosts your odds by ~20% illustrating the impact of Sunbaked Canyon.
| Draws | P(X>=7) | P(X>=6) |
| 3 | 33% | |
| 4 | 23% | 65% |
| 5 | 52% | 85% |
| 6 | 75% | 94% |
1.1.3 Mulling 2-3 landers
Burn needs a turn one play. On the draw with an otherwise exceptional hand, it can be worth betting on ripping a one mana card (~40% chance). “Exceptional hands” often involve Searing Blaze to gain back tempo lost by missed early plays.
Burn wants to either cast multiple spells per turn or cast one spell while adding combat damage. An abundance of two mana spells gets awkward without a turn one creature.
The biggest issue in mulliganing a borderline seven despite it having a reasonable number of lands is the risk of being forced to mull to five if the second hand is unkeepable. Under the guidelines in this article, Burn has a ~30% chance of a forced mulligan.
1.2 What to Mull
Knowing what to bottom is the next step. Since a mulligan to four is a near auto-loss, only consider mulls to six and five.
1.2.1 Mull to Six
Simply bottom the worst card! Ditch any land past two. Sunbaked Canyon can help draw out of mulligans. Bottoming spells is tricky. If you know the matchup, you can identify the worst card.
Against an unknown opponent Skullcrack and Lightning Helix are often just two mana to deal three. Searing Blaze is amazing against creatures but can also get stuck in hand.
On the play I bottom excess Blazes (1st copy is worth keeping) then any Skullcrack/Helix. On the draw I also consider bottoming Rift Bolt since it’s harder to safely suspend. I hold Boros Charms over most cards because extra damage helps get out of the mulligan, despite it being clunky.
1.2.2 Mull to 5
When keeping five cards you have two options: two lands + three spells or one land + four spells. The probabilities of drawing the necessary six or seven spells are below. 1 + 4 has an adjusted column, requiring a second land within the first two draws.
If you have enough 1 mana spells to afford hitting your 2nd land late, 1 + 4 is the winning keep.
If you need a second land early, 2 + 3 is optimal. This has a higher risk of flooding out. However, guaranteeing the 2nd land beats the 1 + 4 adjustment column.
| Draws | 2 Lands 3 Spells | 1 Land 4 Spells | 1 Land 4 Spells Adjusted | |||
| P(X>=7) | P(X>=6) | P(X>=7) | P(X>=6) | P(X>=7) | P(X>=6) | |
| 4 | 23% | 65% | 62% | 91% | 22% | 49% |
| 5 | 52% | 85% | 82% | 97% | 40% | 56% |
| 6 | 75% | 94% | 92% | 99% | 51% | 58% |
Note: The last column barely moves due to the 41% chance of drawing 0 lands in top 2 (assumed auto-loss). This creates a ceiling of 59%.
2.0 Level 2: Playing Matchups
Level 2 mulliganing means adapting to opponents. Burn usually wins via mana efficiency. However, some games are about invalidating interaction, controlling the board, or disruption.
Addressing precise matchups would limit how long this article is useful for. Metas and lists are constantly evolving. I instead focused on the high level ideas behind Control, Combo, and Aggro. Understanding Burn’s underlying strategies informs level 2 mulligan decisions.
2.1 Control
You do not need to kill control players outright. Instead, you need enough early pressure to get their life total so low that they cannot tap out. If the control deck cannot effectively use its mana, you will have time to draw excess burn spells.
Control decks are built to have inevitability. However, on low life totals Burn steals the inevitability since burn spells become more powerful than card draw.
Mulligan Tips:
One-landers are weaker. This is not obvious, as slower games give more time to draw lands. However, if your opponent stabilizes at a high life total you will not win, so you need to get out of the gates quickly.
Mulligans are more punishing as your opponent is trying to exhaust your resources. You don’t need a perfect hand since the top of your deck is live.
Not every spell will resolve. When evaluating your hand, count theoretical damage (assume everything resolves) and likely damage (assume reasonable answers).
2.2 Combo
Aggro usually cannot meaningfully disrupt combo and therefore must outrace it. Damage rate is more important than damage amount (see section 1.1.1). A hand that can quickly deploy top decked spells is preferable to a gas heavy but slow/awkward draw.
Mulligan Tips:
Opening on a creature is crucial. In Legacy, I often mulligan for Goblin Guide. Mulligans are less costly if your opponent can win while you have cards in hand.
Land heavy hands can be fast. Evaluate Sunbaked Canyon carefully as you may not have time to activate it.
Boros Charm’s damage rate (two per mana) is 33% better than Lightning Helix but 50% worse than Lava Spike.
Everything we’ve discussed is based on Burn being unable to disrupt combo. Eidolon of the Great Revel or Roiling Vortex can be problematic for a few decks, but are both matchup dependent. Sideboarding can add more relevant interaction – see section 3.
2.3 Aggro
Aggro vs aggro matchups are normally damage races which are decided by creatures. You must either deploy or answer threats. If you cannot play to the board, you cannot win. Trading removal for opposing creatures becomes profitable when followed with an attack.
Mulligan Tips:
You want threats on the play, and answers on the draw. Eidolon of the Great Revel is weak on the draw. If a hand has mostly cards that don’t impact the board, take a mulligan.
Cards that change combat math are invaluable. Potentially drawing Lightning Helix or Searing Blaze makes it appealing to mulligan borderline hands.
Also, pay attention to your lands! In damage races, your life is just as valuable as your opponent’s. Inspiring Vantage is almost a full card better than Sacred Foundry. Don’t hesitate to mulligan awkward mana.
Indestructible mode on Boros Charm can manufacture blowout combats provided your creatures are similarly sized to opponents. Evaluate it as interactive in creature heavy hands.
3.0 Level 3: Paradigm Shifts
Level 2 mulligans focus on underlying strategy. In tournament magic anything can change. Level 3 mulliganing means adapting to changes in core assumptions.
3.1 Play vs Draw
The play rewards proactive strategies, while the draw rewards reactive gameplay. Burn is a fundamentally proactive deck. Even fast builds struggle when starting a turn behind.
On the play, Searing Blaze answers mana dorks. On the draw, only Lightning Bolt can bolt the bird. You have a ~40% chance of mulliganing into bolt.
On the play, one-drops get a guaranteed hit (assuming no Solitude). On the draw, there are no guaranteed attacks. Burn spells profitably clear blockers on the play as you’ll have time to develop threats. On the draw, the tempo from Searing Blaze is especially clutch. Evaluate creature beatdown hands differently on the play or draw.
3.2 Sideboarding
Burn is normally a critical mass deck. Specific matchups (Eidolon of the Great Revel vs Storm) and sideboarding (Rest in Peace vs GY decks) can give it singularly impactful cards. This makes mulligans less detrimental. Mulling into a high impact card offsets starting with fewer resources.
A dedicated hate card doesn’t justify a bad hand. Opponents have plans for targeted answers. For instance, Legacy Reanimator decks can use Dark Ritual to play Griselbrand through graveyard hate. Mulligan to try to redraw sideboard hate alongside pressure.
One-landers are weaker postboard. Burn’s best sideboard cards (Smash to Smithereens, Roiling Vortex, Sanctifier En-Vec etc…) all cost two mana. Mulligan one-landers without sideboard cards, though you can try to draw the 2nd land if you already have the sideboard card.
3.3 Opponents
Opponents who know you’re on Burn will mulligan differently. If aggressively mulliganing for lifegain is in their range, value Skullcrack hands at a premium. With most decks, your opponent mulliganing makes it safer to mulligan. Since Burn trades resources for damage, use your opponent’s decision only as a tie-breaker.
Your opponent’s playstyle informs your keepable range. See if they play around cards or if they prefer making you have it. Decipher your opponent’s plan – Who’s the Beatdown is a function of both decks and players.
3.4 Miscellaneous
Mulligan more aggressively in faster matchups.
Excess spells give resilience to hand disruption. However, extra lands cast hands faster to get under Thoughtseize. Combining these, I like seeing Sunbaked Canyon in my opener against discard strategies.
Against possible Leyline of Sanctity, try to keep hands with 2+ creatures. Lightning Bolt becomes removal, Boros Charm’s Double Strike pushes damage, and Roiling Vortex ignores hexproof.
4.0 Level 4: Red Deck Master
Reading articles only gets you so far! Playing Magic is the best way to become a Red Deck Master! You can develop strategies that go deeper than any article.
My best advice is learning to lose properly. Always congratulate your opponent. Never blame luck. If several draws needed to change (opponent bricking/you ripping) you will keep losing over 10,000 replays. Even with bad matchups/bad luck, getting within one or two draws of winning will net some wins over 10,000 iterations.
Take responsibility instead of complaining. See what you can do better. Being unable to find mistakes does not mean you played perfectly. It means you need to learn the game on a deeper level. There were mistakes, you just need practice to recognize them. Prevalent errors include not thinking ahead, misunderstanding the matchup, and misreading the opponent’s hand/plan.
Practice makes perfect. So what are you waiting for? Find an FNM, boot up Arena/MTGO, or join our Discord to play in free online tournaments!
